It was two months ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
